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Mathematical and Computational Modeling

Development of a Quantitative Food Supply Vulnerability Tool Exploring Public Health Risks

Principal Investigator: 
Emma Hartnett
The FSMA (2011) Section 106 requires that a vulnerability assessment of the food system be conducted, including biological, chemical, radiological, or other risk assessments. While defining vulnerability, DHS (2010) noted that a practical measure is the "likelihood that an attack is successful...

Analyzing Ingredient-Product Relationships to Enhance Traceability

Principal Investigator: 
John Ambrosiano
Ingredients commonly used within a particular group of products could potentially be targeted by terrorists to intentionally contaminate many foods simultaneously. Additionally, specialty ingredients, or those having only a few suppliers, could be preferentially chosen because of their potential to...

Examining Food Risk in the Large Using a Complex, Networked System-of-Systems Approach

Principal Investigator: 
John Ambrosiano
Our food production infrastructure is a highly complex system of systems (SOS). Many of the foods we eat are complex, manufactured products with many constituent ingredients, any one of which could be a source of contamination. The supply-distribution links connecting these systems are themselves...

Statistical Risk Metrics using Extreme Value Theory

Principal Investigator: 
Hamid Mohtadi
This project consisted of three parts. First, we developed a new dataset on criminal/terrorist activities involving the use of chemical, biological or radionuclear (CBRN) agents on a global scale over the past 40 years. These include agents that would be the likely candidates to be used for any...

A Probabilistic and Cost-Based Index of Food Threats

Principal Investigator: 
Hamid Mohtadi
This project develops a data-based probabilistic algorithm for food vulnerabilities and applies those probabilities to estimate the expected costs (losses) both in the market (loss of sales) and in health care. This will enable policy makers and food companies to prioritize and rationalize the...

Optimized Detection of Intentional Contamination Using Simulation Modeling

Principal Investigator: 
Don Schaffner
The goal of this project is to develop a computer simulation model which allows the user to specify the container size, contamination prevalence, agent concentration and agent distribution. The model will be able to address differing sampling requirements for agents able to cause illness at very...

Determining Optimum Investments in Security Measures and Assessing

Principal Investigator: 
Hamid Mohtadi
This study focuses on the role of information exchange and communication among food companies as a key element of supply chain resiliency to catastrophic incidents. Its goal is to identify optimum levels of investments needed to improve information exchange and communication among supply chain...

Supply Chain Food Protection and Defense Supply Chain Standards

Principal Investigator: 
Omar Keith Helferich
Development of a 10 Step Food Safety and Defense Standards Parocess is considered necessary to achieve a best practice that will assist in the implementation of the integrated standards processes across the extended food supply chain. A US-wide survey of environmental health professionals in...

Models of Interdependent Security in Food Supply Chains

Principal Investigator: 
Vicki Bier
This research focused on protection from terrorism using risk analysis and game theory. In particular, game-theoretic models were developed to evaluate how investments in security by some partners in the supply chain can affect the risks and returns faced by others. Stochastic optimization models...
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