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Reduction of Economic Impact

Award No.: 
N-00014-04-1-0659
Status: 
Complete
Principal Investigator: 
William Nganje; William (Formerly) Nganje
PI Organization: 
; North Dakota State University
Abstract: 
This study provides a framework to value investments to mitigate possible agro-terrorism occurrences in the food supply chain and to determine where these investments would reduce the most risk. This framework is applied to the milk industry, which is a sector of the food industry that could be at risk. Stochastic optimization method is used to determine the costs and risk premiums of alternative investments with real time tracking possibilities. The real options method along with a portfolio of options, also referred to as the tomato garden framework, is used to determine where and when alternative intervention strategies should be implemented to reduce the most risk.
Analytic Methods Utilized: