Detlof von Winterfeldt
University of Southern California
This proposal is an extension of the Systems Vulnerability Risk Assessments research collaboration between the National Center for Food Protection and Defense and Decision Insights Inc. One of the goals of the proposed work is to utilize the models from the current phase for determining a set of key parameters, which can be used for characterizing the risks from contamination to a food system. Such parameterization will be useful when complete data sets on the workings of a food system are unknown and the nevertheless a risk assessment is imperative. This goal is a part of the aim numbered 2.1.6 in NCFPD priority areas. The other goal of the proposed work is to modify the current models to determine investment strategies for detection/testing, evaluating testing scenarios, evaluate supply chain designs and value of information studies. This goal is directed towards aims 3.1-3.5 in NCFPD priority areas. Methods of Decision and Risk Analysis - Decision Trees, Influence Diagrams, Sensitivity Analysis will be utilized. Current phase work will be extended or modified. The results of the work are directly relevant to both Government and Non-Government agencies that make decisions directed are contamination risk reductions.